HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0805

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Saudi Aramco announces official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month.	★★★
14:45	France’s June industrial output month-on-month	★★★
15:50	France’s July services PMI final value	★★★
15:55	Germany’s July services PMI final value	★★★
16:00	Eurozone’s July services PMI final value	★★★
16:30	UK’s July services PMI final value	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s June PPI month-on-month	★★★
20:30	US June trade balance	★★★
21:45	US July S&P Global services PMI final value	★★★
22:00	US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating rebound	98-98.5	100-101
Gold	Fluctuating rebound	3300-3320	3370-3380
Crude oil	Fluctuating with a strong bias	65-66	72-73
Euro	Fluctuating with a weak bias	1.1380-1.1400	1.1570-1.1600

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained rates for the fifth consecutive time, with committee members showing divergence. Inflation levels are slightly high, the labor market is balanced, but there may be downside risks. Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and the outlook is uncertain, with little change in the assessment of tariff impacts. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, indicating signs of a slowing labor market. June’s CPI year-on-year showed a slight increase; June’s core PCE price index remained flat compared to the previous value; July’s ISM manufacturing PMI slightly declined.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with a small real body K-line on the daily chart. The short-term trend is oscillating, with intense competition between bulls and bears, and there may be signs of stabilization in the short term, with a higher probability of price increases. The key question remains whether the upper resistance level can be broken. Overall, after a significant decline in the previous trend, the daily chart shows a fluctuating rebound, and attention should be paid to stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 98-98.5.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, signs of stabilization in the short-term pullback, focus on whether the upper resistance level can be broken.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is unstable, with uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy remaining resilient but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. In July, the US non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowing labor market; June’s CPI year-on-year showed a slight increase, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price rose slightly yesterday, with a small cycle of oscillation upward. It is currently still in a pressure zone, and caution is needed for potential selling pressure. If there are long positions, it is advisable to take profits at highs and pay attention to small cycle K-line signals, as there may be a risk of weakening. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily line is oscillating at a high level, with prices fluctuating back and forth. The upper pressure level is around 3370-3380, while the lower support level is around 3300-3320.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound, take profits at highs for long positions, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the pressure level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised the oil price forecast for this year; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose policy recommendations. In early August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, and this data has been fluctuating recently, which may affect the supply-demand structure. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil continued to slightly adjust yesterday, with a rebound in the night session. The price tested the support area without a significant breakdown. Pay attention to small cycle signals for stabilization, and at that time, low long opportunities can be attempted. Overall, the crude oil support area is undergoing oscillation and adjustment, stabilizing at the daily line level, and may resume an upward trend. The upper pressure area is around 72-73, while the lower support area is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a strong bias, small cycle testing the support area, pay attention to stabilization signals.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally meeting expectations, though future uncertainties exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade situations. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth is inclined towards downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally meeting expectations. The US non-farm payrolls in July fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a slowdown in the labor market.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price oscillated slightly yesterday, with a small bearish candle on the daily line. The current pressure level has not been significantly broken, and there are signs of weakening in the small cycle, which may lead to a pullback. During the day, attempts can be made for short positions at highs, taking profits at lows in a timely manner. Overall, the larger upward structure remains unchanged, with a short-term correction underway. The upper pressure area is around 1.1570-1.1600, while the lower support area is around 1.1380-1.1400.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a weak bias, the small cycle has rebounded to the pressure area and may encounter resistance.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.