HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0819

Time	Data and Events	Importance
16:00	Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account	★★★
20:30	Canada July CPI month-on-month	★★★
	US July housing starts annualized	★★★
	US July building permits total	★★★
Next day 02:10	Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Short-term adjustment	97.5-98	100-100.5
Gold	Fluctuating pullback	3300-3310	3380-3400
Crude oil	Fluctuating weak	61-62	64-65
Euro	High-level fluctuations	1.1600-1.1620	1.1700-1.1730

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained rates for the fifth consecutive time, with dissent among committee members. Inflation levels are slightly high, the labor market is balanced, but there may be downside risks. Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and there is uncertainty about the outlook, with little change in the assessment of tariff impacts. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, showing signs of a slowing labor market. July CPI data remained unchanged, below expectations; June core PCE price index was flat with the previous value; July ISM manufacturing PMI slightly declined.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a slight rebound in the overnight session, with the daily line closing with a bullish candle. The battle between bulls and bears is intense, and the support area below has not been significantly broken. There are signs of stabilization in the short cycle, and the short-term trend may strengthen. Overall, prices are in a low-level fluctuation, testing the support area multiple times without showing significant stabilization signals. The resistance area above is around 100-100.5, while the support area below is around 97.5-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, support area has not been significantly broken, signs of stabilization in the short cycle.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy remaining resilient but with downside risks, and trade conditions unclear. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the end of July maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainty in the outlook. In July, the US non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowing labor market; July CPI year-on-year remained unchanged, below expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged and then retreated yesterday, with the daily line closing with an upper shadow, indicating selling pressure above. The short cycle is showing a downward fluctuation, and in the short term, a fluctuating pullback strategy may be maintained, with opportunities to short at highs and take profits on dips. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily line shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The resistance level above is around 3380-3400, while the support level below is around 3300-3310.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating pullback, opportunities to short at highs during the day, take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the August OPEC monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for this year was maintained, with a slight upward adjustment to the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next, while raising the global oil supply growth forecast for the same period. The July EIA monthly report slightly raised the crude oil price forecast for this year. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose any policy recommendations. In early August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. Attention is on the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures rebounded slightly overnight, with a short-term oscillation bias, and prices are near the support area. The battle between bulls and bears is intense, and no significant stabilization signals have emerged yet. In the short term, a weak oscillation strategy may be maintained, and if there are short positions, timely profits should be taken on dips. Overall, crude oil is oscillating and adjusting around the support area, with prices continuously testing the support area, and no significant stabilization signals have emerged. The upper small-level pressure area is around 64-65, while the lower support area is around 61-62.

Viewpoint: Oscillation bias is weak, take profits on short positions at lower levels.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally in line with expectations, though future uncertainties may exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth is leaning towards downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in July fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in the labor market. Attention is on the Eurozone’s August manufacturing PMI value on Thursday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro opened slightly higher yesterday but then declined, closing with a bearish candlestick on the daily chart. There is selling pressure above, and caution is advised regarding the risk of a weakening trend. Intraday, attempts at short positions may be considered, taking profits on dips. Overall, there is a large-scale upward structure, but the daily chart failed to make a new high, so caution is warranted regarding the risk of a weakening trend. The upper pressure area is around 1.1700-1.1730, while the lower support area is around 1.1600-1.1620.

Viewpoint: Oscillation at high levels, be cautious of the risk of a weakening trend, attempt short opportunities intraday, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.