HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0812

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	OPEC releases monthly oil market report	★★★
12:30	Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision as of August 12	★★★
13:30	Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
14:00	UK June three-month ILO unemployment rate	★★★
	UK July unemployment rate	★★★
	UK July jobless claims	★★★
17:00	Germany August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
	Eurozone August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
20:30	US July unadjusted CPI year-on-year	★★★★★
	US July seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month	★★★★
	US July seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month	★★★
	US July unadjusted core CPI year-on-year	★★★
22:00	2027 FOMC voting member Barkin speaks	★★★
22:30	2025 FOMC voting member Schmidt speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook	★★★
Next day 00:00	EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Short-term adjustment	97.5-98	100-100.5
Gold	Fluctuating weak	3280-3300	3380-3400
Oil	Fluctuating rebound	62-63	66-67
Euro	Fluctuating weak	1.1550-1.1580	1.1680-1.1700

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained rates for the fifth consecutive time, with dissent among voting members, inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, potential downside risks, economic growth slowing in the first half of the year, and uncertainty in the outlook, with little change in tariff impact assessments. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, showing signs of a slowing labor market. The June core PCE price index remained flat compared to the previous value; the July ISM manufacturing PMI slightly declined. Focus on US July CPI data on Tuesday.

Technical analysis:

The US Dollar Index continued a slight rebound yesterday, closing with a bullish candlestick on the daily chart. The support area below has not been significantly broken, but there is also selling pressure above. In the short term, it may show a fluctuating structure. Pay attention to whether the current minor resistance level can be broken. If it breaks, the market may strengthen. Overall, prices are in a low-level fluctuation, testing the support area multiple times, so watch for stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, and the lower support area is around 97.5-98.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment may show a fluctuating structure; watch for signals of stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainties in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy remaining resilient but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also remained unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowdown in the labor market; the June CPI year-on-year slightly warmed up, meeting expectations. Attention is on the U.S. July CPI data.

Technical analysis:

Gold prices saw a significant pullback yesterday, encountering resistance near the upper pressure level, with a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart and signs of weakening in the short term. There may be opportunities to short during the day, but profits should be taken promptly, as short-term price fluctuations are likely. From a larger perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper pressure level is around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3280-3300.

Viewpoint: The market is weak with potential selling pressure above; short opportunities can be attempted during the day, with timely profit-taking.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price expectations; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production while maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose any policy recommendations. In early August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. Attention is on the energy monthly reports from OPEC and the other two major organizations, as well as EIA crude oil inventories.

Technical analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw a slight rebound yesterday, with a short-term fluctuating market, prices are in a support area and have not significantly broken down, but there is also selling pressure above, making short-term fluctuations likely. Opportunities to go long can be attempted during the day, with timely profit-taking. Overall, crude oil is in a support area with fluctuations and adjustments, continuously testing the support area without showing significant stabilization signals. The upper minor pressure area is around 66-67, while the lower support area is around 62-63.

Viewpoint: The market is rebounding with fluctuations; short-term long opportunities can be attempted during the day, with timely profit-taking.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with the inflation outlook generally meeting expectations, but future uncertainties may arise due to unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth tends to face downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also remained unchanged, with slightly high inflation levels, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The manufacturing PMI preliminary values for the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally meeting expectations. U.S. July non-farm employment fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a slowdown in the labor market.

Technical analysis:

The euro price slightly retreated in the overnight session, with a bearish candlestick on the daily chart indicating signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the support area below; if it breaks, the market may weaken further. Opportunities to short can be attempted during the day, with timely profit-taking on dips. Overall, there is a large upward structure, but the daily chart has not made new highs, so caution is warranted regarding weakening risks. The upper pressure area is around 1.1680-1.1700, while the lower support area is around 1.1550-1.1580.

Viewpoint: The market is weak with potential selling pressure above; short opportunities can be attempted during the day.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.