HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0804

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:30	Switzerland July CPI Monthly Rate	★★★
16:30	Eurozone August Sentix Investor Confidence Index	★★★
22:00	U.S. June Factory Orders Monthly Rate	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating rebound	98-98.5	100-101
Gold	Fluctuating rebound	3300-3320	3360-3380
Crude Oil	Fluctuating strong	66-67	72-73
Euro	Fluctuating weak	1.1380-1.1400	1.1570-1.1600

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained rates for the fifth consecutive time, with committee members showing divergence. Inflation levels are slightly high, the labor market is balanced, but there may be downside risks. Economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, and there is uncertainty about the outlook, with little change in the assessment of tariff impacts. In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, in line with expectations, indicating signs of a slowing labor market. June CPI year-on-year slightly warmed; June core PCE price index remained flat with the previous value; July ISM manufacturing PMI slightly retreated.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index was significantly affected by non-farm data, experiencing a sharp pullback in Friday’s night session, failing to break through the upper resistance level. It is currently testing the support area, and the short-term may experience fluctuating consolidation. Attention should be paid to whether a stabilization signal appears; if so, the market may test the resistance level again. Overall, the previous market saw a significant decline, and the daily line is in fluctuating consolidation, focusing on stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 100-101, and the lower support area is around 98-98.5.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, currently close to the support area, pay attention to signals of stopping the decline and stabilizing.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The Middle East and Eastern Europe are experiencing turmoil, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy remaining resilient but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with slightly high inflation levels, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainty in the outlook. In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a slowing labor market; June CPI year-on-year slightly warmed, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged significantly in Friday’s night session, closing with a large bullish candle, indicating a fluctuating rebound trend. The upper area is close to the resistance zone, and the short-term may encounter obstacles. If there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs; in the short term, it may be fluctuating, and attention should be paid to whether the resistance level can be broken. Otherwise, be cautious of the risk of a weakening market. From a larger perspective, the daily line shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3360-3380, and the lower support level is around 3300-3320.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, take profits on long positions in a timely manner, and pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance level.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the July EIA monthly report, the forecast for this year’s crude oil prices was slightly raised; in the OPEC monthly report, June production saw a slight increase, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose any policy recommendations. In early August, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, exiting the current round of production cuts a year early. EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant increase, with recent data showing considerable volatility, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently shown strong performance, breaking through the consolidation range, but is currently in a pullback in the short term, near the support area. Attention should be paid to signs of stabilization; if confirmed, the market may resume its upward trend, presenting short-term long opportunities for timely profit. Overall, crude oil is in a phase of oscillation and adjustment around the support area, with daily levels stabilizing, potentially leading to a recovery in the upward trend. The upper pressure area is around 72-73, while the lower support area is around 66-67.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight upward bias, the short-term pullback is near the support area, watch for signs of stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally meeting expectations, though future uncertainties exist due to unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth leans towards downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also maintained rates unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally in line with expectations. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in July fell short of expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a slowdown in the labor market.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price saw a significant rebound in Friday’s night session, with the lower support area performing well. It is currently near the pressure area but has not clearly broken through. The short-term cycle is showing oscillation, and the market may face resistance. If it can clearly break above the structure, it may continue to rebound. Overall, the larger upward structure remains unchanged, with a short-term pullback. The upper pressure area is around 1.1570-1.1600, while the lower support area is around 1.1380-1.1400.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight downward bias, the short-term rebound has reached the pressure area and may encounter resistance.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.