HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0801

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The U.S. “reciprocal tariffs” have begun implementation, with a 50% import tariff on copper taking effect.	★★★★★
07:30	Japan’s June unemployment rate	★★★
14:00	UK’s July Nationwide House Price Index month-on-month	★★★
16:00	Eurozone’s July Manufacturing PMI final value	★★★
16:30	UK’s July Manufacturing PMI final value	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s July CPI year-on-year preliminary value	★★★
	Eurozone’s July CPI month-on-month preliminary value	★★★
20:30	U.S. July unemployment rate	★★★★★
	U.S. July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls	★★★★★
	U.S. July average hourly wage year-on-year	★★★
	U.S. July average hourly wage month-on-month	★★★
21:45	U.S. July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value	★★★
22:00	U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI	★★★★
	U.S. July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value	★★★★
	U.S. July one-year inflation expectations final value	★★★
	U.S. June construction spending month-on-month	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating rebound	98-98.5	100-101
Gold	Fluctuating weak	3220-3250	3300-3320
Crude oil	Fluctuating strong	66-67	72-73
Euro	Fluctuating weak	1.1320-1.1350	1.1570-1.1600

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting will maintain its position for the fifth consecutive time, with a divergence among voting members. Inflation levels are slightly high, and the labor market is in a balanced state, which may pose downside risks. Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and there is uncertainty in the outlook. The assessment of tariff impacts has not changed significantly. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, indicating a robust labor market. The June CPI year-on-year has slightly warmed; the June core PCE price index is in line with previous values. Pay attention to the non-farm data on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index rose slightly yesterday, with a small cycle pullback and short-term performance still leaning strong. The price is in a resistance area and has not clearly broken above, so caution is needed for potential selling pressure. Watch whether this structure can break above; if so, the market may strengthen further. Overall, the previous market saw a significant decline, with daily fluctuations and consolidation, so watch for stabilization signals. The upper resistance area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 98-98.5.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, with strong performance in the small cycle; watch whether the resistance level can be broken. Pay attention to the non-farm data.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, with no signs of easing, while the situation in Eastern Europe remains unstable. The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with inflation meeting expectations, the economy showing resilience but facing downside risks, and trade conditions being unclear. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also kept rates unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year rate showed a slight increase, in line with expectations. Attention is on non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rebounded slightly yesterday, facing resistance and retreating. The short-term performance is relatively weak, but prices did not create new lows, and there may be support below. If there are short positions, timely profits should be taken on dips, and a volatile market may appear in the short term, focusing on the effectiveness of the support area. From a longer-term perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The upper resistance level is around 3300-3320, while the lower support level is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, timely profits should be taken on short positions at dips, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support area. Focus on non-farm data.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price expectations; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth forecast for this year; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this and next year. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another increase in September and discussions on pausing production increases from October. At the end of July, the OPEC ministerial meeting did not propose any policy recommendations. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, with recent data showing considerable volatility, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices slightly corrected yesterday, with a small decline. The short-term showed fluctuations, and attention should be paid to stabilization signals, as there may still be room for price increases. The short-term strategy is to buy on dips and reduce holdings for profits on highs. Overall, the crude oil support area is in a fluctuating adjustment, with daily stabilization possibly restoring an upward trend. The upper pressure area is around 72-73, while the lower support area is around 66-67.

Viewpoint: Strong fluctuations, prices breaking through the fluctuation range, focus on buying opportunities on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s July interest rate decision maintained rates unchanged, with the inflation outlook generally meeting expectations, but future uncertainties may exist, with unclear tariff policies and trade conditions. The Eurozone economy remains resilient, but economic growth tends to face downside risks. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision also kept rates unchanged, with slightly high inflation levels, a balanced labor market, and slowing economic growth, leading to uncertainties in the outlook. The preliminary values of the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and major economies showed little change, generally in line with expectations. Attention is on non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rebounded slightly yesterday, with short-term highs followed by a retreat. There may be selling pressure above, but prices did not significantly create new lows, and there are signs of slowing decline. The lower support structure is approaching, and if there are short positions, timely profits should be taken on dips. Overall, the larger upward structure remains unchanged, with a short-term adjustment entering. The upper pressure area is around 1.1570-1.1600, while the lower support area is around 1.1320-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, with the lower support area approaching, and timely profits should be taken on short positions at dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.