HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0716

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11	★★★
14:00	UK June CPI month-on-month	★★★
	UK June Retail Price Index month-on-month	★★★
17:00	Eurozone May adjusted trade balance	★★★
20:30	U.S. June PPI year-on-year	★★★
	U.S. June PPI month-on-month	★★★
21:15	U.S. June industrial output month-on-month	★★★
22:00	Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 11	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending July 11	★★★
	U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending July 11	★★★
Next day 02:00	Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions	★★★
Next day 05:30	FOMC permanent voting member Williams speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Fluctuating rebound	3300-3330	3380-3400
Crude oil	Short-term adjustment	64-65	79-80
Euro	Fluctuating pullback	1.1600-1.1620	1.1670-1.1700

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were held steady for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a stable labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The core PCE price index rose slightly in May; the ISM manufacturing PMI value rose slightly in May; the June CPI year-on-year rose slightly, with moderate inflation aligning with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently continued its rebound trend, with daily fluctuations moving upward. Yesterday, it closed with a large bullish candle, and there are no signs of weakness in the short cycle, suggesting there may still be upward space, with a short-term rebound structure likely to be maintained. Overall, the larger-scale fluctuation is slightly weak, with a slowing decline, entering a rebound trend in the short term. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, with bulls in the dominant position, suggesting there may still be room for further rebound.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with inflation levels slightly high and a robust labor market, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the June CPI year-on-year rate showed a slight increase, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices slightly retreated in the night session, with the short-term cycle failing to break upward, facing selling pressure above, and prices once again testing the support area. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of stabilization, with a short-term expectation of maintaining a fluctuating rebound strategy, while monitoring whether the pressure level above can be broken. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows high-level fluctuations, with prices moving back and forth. The small-level pressure area is around 3380-3400, while the support area is around 3300-3330.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, pay attention to stabilization signals in the support area, and attempt short-term long opportunities for timely profit.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The July EIA monthly report slightly raised this year’s crude oil price expectations; the OPEC monthly report indicated a slight increase in June production, maintaining the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered oil demand expectations for this year and next. At the beginning of July, the OPEC+ meeting agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with expectations for another increase in September and discussions on pausing the increase from October. EIA crude oil inventories saw a significant increase, with large data fluctuations potentially affecting the supply-demand structure. Attention should be paid to the EIA crude oil inventory report this Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with the daily chart closing as a doji star, indicating signs of consolidation in the short-term cycle, and the support area has not been significantly broken, so attention should be paid to whether there are stabilization signals. If so, the market may resume its upward trend, and low long opportunities can be attempted. Overall, crude oil has seen a significant pullback previously, testing important structures, and may show signs of stabilization. The pressure area above is around 79-80, while the support area below is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, pay attention to whether there are stabilization signals, and attempt short-term long opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year, due to trade escalations leading to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly high short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty, while the dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro continued its downward trend yesterday, with the daily chart closing as a large bearish candle, showing weak performance in the short-term cycle, currently near the support area, and may see a slight rebound. The short-term strategy remains a fluctuating correction, focusing on opportunities for short positions during rebounds and taking profits on dips. Overall, the daily chart shows a fluctuating upward trend, with a strong structure in the larger cycle, entering a short-term adjustment. The pressure area above is around 1.1670-1.1700, while the support area below is around 1.1600-1.1620.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating correction, attempt to take short positions during rebounds for timely profit.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.