HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0613

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:00	Germany May CPI final month-on-month rate	★★★
14:45	France May CPI final month-on-month rate	★★★
17:00	Eurozone April adjusted trade balance	★★★
	Eurozone April industrial production month-on-month rate	★★★
20:30	Canada April wholesale sales month-on-month rate	★★★
22:00	U.S. June one-year inflation expectations preliminary value	★★★
	U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term fluctuations	96-97	101-102
Gold	Fluctuations biased towards strength	3370-3400	3480-3500
Crude oil	Fluctuations biased towards strength	68-69	77-78
Euro	Fluctuations biased towards strength	1.1450-1.1480	1.1650-1.1700

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate stabilized; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks; the impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, creating uncertainty. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, roughly in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate in May rose slightly but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index fell sharply yesterday, breaking below previous lows, with weak performance in the short cycle and selling pressure forming above. The short-term may continue a weak trend, but caution is advised for small-scale rebounds. Overall, the large-scale structure is biased towards weakness, with daily fluctuations trending downwards and prices hitting new lows. The resistance area is around 101-102, while the support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations biased towards weakness, prices hitting new lows without signs of a bottoming out.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran and turmoil in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marks the seventh consecutive 25 basis point cut, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with downward revisions to inflation expectations for this and next year, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, with a resilient labor market and slight short-term inflation increases, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while downside risks to the economy are increasing. The U.S. May non-farm data showed a slight decline in job additions, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate in May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have recently performed strongly, with consecutive daily increases, testing resistance levels in the early session. The short-term strategy remains focused on buying on dips, with profit-taking on highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily high-level fluctuation structure may show signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether prices can hit new highs. The resistance level is around 3480-3500, while the support level is around 3370-3400.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations biased towards strength, buying on dips, and profit-taking on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the June EIA monthly report, crude oil prices for this year and next were slightly raised. The May OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year while lowering the economic growth forecast. The IEA monthly report slightly raised the oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027 and will hold another round of negotiations in early June, potentially reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, tightening the supply-demand structure. The conflict in the Middle East may lead to expectations of tighter supply.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil, influenced by the Middle East, saw a significant rise in early trading, breaking through resistance levels and showing strong recent performance. If there are long positions, consider taking profits on highs and be cautious of minor pullbacks; it is not advisable to chase prices higher. In the short term, focus on opportunities to buy on dips. Overall, crude oil is in a low-level oscillation and consolidation, with signs of breaking upward and stabilizing. The upper resistance area is around 77-78, while the lower support area is around 68-69.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight upward bias; take profits on long positions at highs and be cautious of minor pullbacks.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a consecutive seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. The inflation forecast for this year and next was lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year, as trade escalations lead to slower economic growth and inflation. In May, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and continued balance sheet reduction plans, while economic downside risks have increased. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone showed slight fluctuations in May, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro continued its upward trend yesterday, closing with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, with the short-term cycle reaching new highs. However, it is not advisable to chase prices higher; if there are long positions, consider taking profits on highs and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Overall, the daily chart shows a strong oscillation, with prices breaking above previous highs. The upper resistance area is around 1.1650-1.1700, while the lower support area is around 1.1450-1.1480.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight upward bias; focus on opportunities to buy on dips and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, belong to predictions, are for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.