HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0708

Time	Data and Events	Importance
00:00	U.S. President Trump begins sending tariff letters to other countries.	★★★
07:50	Japan’s May trade balance.	★★★
12:30	Australia’s Reserve Bank interest rate decision until July 8.	★★★
13:30	Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe holds a monetary policy press conference.	★★★
14:00	Germany’s May seasonally adjusted trade balance.	★★★
14:45	France’s May trade balance.	★★★
18:00	U.S. June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index.	★★★
23:00	U.S. June New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations.	★★★
Next day 00:00	EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term rebound	96-97	99.5-100
Gold	Short-term fluctuations	3220-3250	3350-3380
Crude Oil	Fluctuations biased towards strength	64-65	79-80
Euro	Short-term correction	1.1680-1.1700	1.1780-1.1800

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, and the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a solid labor market. In June, non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, lower than previous values and expectations, showing a robust labor market. The year-on-year CPI for May rose slightly but was below expectations; the core PCE price index for May saw a slight rebound; the ISM manufacturing PMI for May also saw a slight increase.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its rebound yesterday, with small cycles showing upward fluctuations, and the daily line closed with a large bullish candle. There is still distance to the upper resistance level, indicating potential for further upward movement, and the short-term may maintain a rebound outlook. Overall, the larger structure shows a weak fluctuation, with a slowing decline and no signs of stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 99.5-100, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, with potential for further upward movement; pay attention to the effectiveness of the upper resistance area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran, and instability in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision marked the seventh consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, while lowering inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with slightly high inflation levels and a solid labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, both slightly better than expected; the year-on-year CPI for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price fell first and then rose yesterday, showing a slight oscillation in the short term, with the daily line closing with a lower shadow. There is significant support below, but there is also selling pressure above. In the short term, there may be oscillation, and the price might test the resistance area again. If it breaks above, the market will strengthen. From a larger perspective, the daily line shows high-level oscillation, with prices fluctuating back and forth. The small-level resistance is around 3350-3380, while the support is around 3220-3250.

Viewpoint: Short-term oscillation, possibly testing resistance, pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised the oil price forecasts for this year and next. The OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, as well as the economic growth expectations for this year and next. The IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecasts for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set the 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027 and will hold another round of negotiations in early June, possibly reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. On Wednesday, EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, with data showing considerable volatility, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil opened low and rose high yesterday, closing with a large bullish candle. The short-term performance is relatively strong, and there may still be upward space. The short-term strategy is to buy on dips and appropriately reduce holdings to take profits at highs. Overall, crude oil has undergone a significant correction, testing important structures, and there may be signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 64-65.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is relatively strong, with a short-term strategy of buying on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with no discussion on neutral interest rates. The inflation forecasts for this year and next were lowered, and the GDP growth forecast for next year was also reduced, as trade upgrades led to slower economic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a stable labor market, slightly higher short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s June manufacturing PMI slightly missed expectations, with not much difference.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price fell slightly yesterday, entering a correction in the short term. After touching the support area during the night session, the price rebounded, but there is also selling pressure above. One should be cautious of the risk of a weakening market. Intraday, one can attempt short positions to take profits in a timely manner. Overall, the daily line shows an upward oscillation, with a strong structure at a larger level, entering a short-term adjustment. The upper pressure area is around 1.1780-1.1800, while the small-level support area is around 1.1680-1.1700.

Viewpoint: Short-term correction, attempt short positions intraday, and take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.